Fantasy football is a gamble for everyone

Devin TuckerI am horrible at fantasy football. Yet in an article earlier in the year I wrote about the different strategies to use when drafting a fantasy football team.

Although I thought I knew a lot about the sport before, I realize now that it’s very easy to get a false sense of confidence about the strength of the players you’re choosing.

You may want to get a player because of their successful previous seasons, or you might want to get them because you think they did well in college and therefore that might translate into success at professional football.

Whatever your method of selection, it seems as though the more research you do, the better your team will be. However, this is not the case.

There is way too much random chance that goes into sports and what influences the player on any given day.

You could even liken drafting a fantasy football team to taking educated gambles, not too far from playing blackjack at a roulette table.

Though some fantasy football team owners may have more knowledge or skills than others that may put them at slight advantages, the results of the season ultimately come down to chance.

Whether players get hurt, have problems off the field, suddenly lose a step, don’t see the gaps in the defense as well or just lose their ability altogether, there exist just so many options and potential scenarios that could arise that make your team much less than you thought it would be.

I made the mistake of choosing Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson in the first round. All the so-called “fantasy experts” projected that he would do incredibly well this season because of his success at the end of the last season.

Furthermore, they also posited that Peyton Manning, while performing slightly less well than normal, would have another relatively good season.

No one would have expected that the Broncos defense would be carrying their team six games into the NFL season.

Manning’s play has dropped off significantly, and Anderson has not had anywhere near the success as he did at the end of last season. Anderson’s play in particular has declined for a reason that could not have been foreseen before the season.

Various other players have been letdowns as well, and I’m pretty sure all of them are on my team. I originally let it bother me that my team was so bad.

Courtesy of  JEFFERY BEALL via FLICKR  Peyton Manning has not performed to his usually high standards.

Courtesy of JEFFERY BEALL via FLICKR
Peyton Manning has not performed to his usually high standards.

I felt sorry for myself at the results of the season because of my lofty expectations for where I would be at this point.

I let myself get frustrated with one of the things that I love, and it wasn’t until I stepped back and thought about the actual reasons that I played that I realized there are so many reasons why people should love fantasy.

Take Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman for example.

Fantasy football puts players in a certain framework, where certain ones obtain a reputation because of what they have done in the past. There exists a significant amount of bias and subjectivity when it comes to rating certain players.

These fantasy football “experts” commit most of their errors with players who have not entered the NFL with much hype and have not achieved enough playing time. They are less accurate when judging raw talent and underlying factors like motivation, determination and heart.

Freeman exudes toughness and great motivation to gain anything possible in his favor. He always delivers a hit at the end of the play and doesn’t back down from anyone.

He’s not very tall, but he runs like a locomotive and plays like a giant on the gridiron. He has had unprecedented success on the football field this year, and whenever experts predict that he will have a down week or even slow down at all, he puts his foot on the gas and doesn’t look back.

He wasn’t even drafted in the majority of fantasy football leagues, and he has been one of the most dominant players in the game.

Never judge a book by its cover. While cliché, the same rings true for all aspects of life.

Take my advice: never be too confident and keep everything in perspective. Finally, try to stay away from fantasy football leagues that make the person who comes in last place get a tattoo in an undesirable area.

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